The identity of Germany’s next Vice Chancellor in 2025—if Friedrich Merz (CDU) wins the chancellorship—depends entirely on post election coalition negotiations. The Vice Chancellor is typically a senior figure from the junior coalition partner, chosen as part of power sharing agreements. Below is a breakdown of possible scenarios based on current political dynamics and polling of 2025 elections. Let’s find out about “Who will be next Vice Chancellor under Merz?”
Key Coalition Scenarios
#1. CDU/CSU + Free Democratic Party (FDP)
Likelihood: Moderate. Both parties align on probusiness, tax cutting policies.
Vice Chancellor Candidate: Christian Lindner (FDP leader and current Finance Minister).
Lindner already holds the Finance Ministry and could retain the Vice Chancellorship in a Merzled government.
Alternative: Another FDP heavyweight, though Lindner is the likeliest choice.
#2. CDU/CSU + Greens
Likelihood: Possible if the Greens recover from recent poll slumps.
Vice Chancellor Candidate: Ricarda Lang (Greens coleader) or Omid Nouripour (Greens coleader).
Lang, as the face of the Greens’ progressive wing, might balance Merz’s conservative profile.
The Greens could also demand the Economics or Climate Ministry alongside the Vice Chancellorship.
#3. CDU/CSU + Social Democratic Party (SPD)
Likelihood: Less likely, as the SPD aims to avoid another “grand coalition” (last seen under Merkel).
Vice Chancellor Candidate: Lars Klingbeil (SPD coleader) or Nancy Faeser (SPD heavyweight).
The SPD would likely demand significant ministerial roles (e.g., Foreign or Labor Ministry) in exchange for joining a Merzled government.
#4. CDU/CSU + Smaller Parties (e.g., AfD)
Likelihood: Virtually zero. The CDU/CSU has ruled out cooperation with the farright AfD, and other parties would likely block such a coalition.
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Key Factors Influencing the Decision
1. 2025 Election Results: If the CDU/CSU wins a large plurality but lacks a majority, they’ll need a partner. Current polls show the CDU/CSU leading (~30%), with SPD (~18%), Greens (~14%), FDP (~57%), and AfD (~20%).
2. Policy Compromises: The junior partner will push for key ministries (e.g., FDP for Finance, Greens for Climate).
3. Personality Dynamics: Merz’s pragmatic vs. ideological stance could influence coalition choices.
Historical Precedent
- Under Angela Merkel (CDU), Vice Chancellors included:
- Sigmar Gabriel (SPD) in a grand coalition (2013–2018).
- Olaf Scholz (SPD) in another grand coalition (2018–2021).
In a Merzled government, the role would follow similar logic: a balancing act between coalition partners.
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Conclusion
The most probable Vice Chancellor candidates in a Merzled government are:
Christian Lindner (FDP) in a center right coalition.
Ricarda Lang (Greens) in a CDUGreens alliance.
Lars Klingbeil (SPD) in an unlikely grand coalition.
Final decisions will depend on 2025 election results and behind the scenes negotiations. For now, this remains speculative, but Lindner (FDP) appears the frontrunner if Merz opts for a fiscally conservative coalition.
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